It is the 24th of July 2019

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The Scariest Forecast For Treasury Bulls

With Trump's border tax adjustment looking increasingly likely, the stock market - as JPM has warned in recent days - is starting to fade the relentless Trumponomic, hope-driven rally since election day instead focusing on the details inside the president-elect's proposed plans. And, as explained earlier in the week, if the border tax proposal is implemented, economists at Deutsche Bank estimate the tax could send inflation far above the Federal Reserve's 2% target and drive a 15% surge in the dollar.

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Striking Admission By China: "Rising Social Tensions Pose Enormous Challenges To Beijing's Stability"

Data released by China's NBS early last week confirmed that the latest Chinese housing bubble continued to deflate with 70-city housing price data confirming that home price inflation slowed in most cities in November, except in a few lower tier cities where home price inflation re-accelerated. The average, seasonally adjusted property price change was in November +0.7% from October, and up +12.9% yoy. This compares to October's +1.2% mom increase and +12.7% yoy.

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China Dumps Treasuries: Foreign Central Banks Liquidate A Record $403 Billion In US Paper

One month ago, when we last looked at the Fed's update of Treasuries held in custody, we noted something troubling: the number had continued to drop sharply, declining by another $14 billion in one week, and pushing the total amount of custodial paper to $2.788 trillion, the lowest since 2012. One month later, we refresh this chart and find that in last week's update, there is finally some good news: foreign central banks finally bought some US paper held in the Fed's custody account, which following months of liquidation, rose over the past two weeks by $23 billion, the biggest two-week advance since November of 2016, pushing the total amount of custodial paper to $2.816 trillion, the highest since early October.

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