It is the 29th of February 2020


Paul Tudor Jones: "This Market, Which Is Reminiscent Of The 1999 Bubble, Is On The Verge Of A Significant Change"

Just hours after Neil Chriss announced that his $2.2 billion Hutchin Hill hedge fund is shuttering due to underperformance and admitted that "we fought hard, but did not deliver the performance that you expected from us", another legendary hedge fund announced it was undergoing a significant restructuring as a result of relentless investor withdrawals: citing a November 30 letter, Bloomberg reported that Paul Tudor Jones' Tudor Investment Corp, which lost 1.6% YTD,  was closing its Discretionary Macro fund "and letting investors shift assets to the main BVI fund as of Jan. 1" with the letter clarifying that "Jones will also principally manage Tudor’s flagship BVI fund, which will be the firm’s only multi-trader fund next year."

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Eric Peters: "The Next Market Cleanse Will Be Sharp, Deep, Fast And Feel Like The End Of The World"

The latest weekend note by Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management, is his latest masterpiece in lyrical, stream of consciousness, financial analysis, and can be broadly divided into to broad parts: his latest take on financial markets analyzing the build up of disequilibrium which eventually culminates with discrete "flushes" that reset the system; how bold investors inevitably give up on financial sense and logic long (or just) before said flush takes place, and what this upcoming Minsky Moment could mean for the future. We have excerpted from this section in the current note, as for the remainder of his weekend observations - which deal with tectonic macro and geopolitical shifts - we will follow up in a subsequent post.

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Credit Investors Are Suddenly Extremely Worried About Central Banks

On one hand, credit investors have never had it better with IG credit spread at record tights and junk bond yields sliding to 3 year lows

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Where Are We In The Business Cycle: A Troubling Chart From Morgan Stanley

In its 2017 global strategy outlook note titled "Sparkle and Fade", Morgan Stanley is bittersweet about the future. While on one hand, the bank - which until recent had one of the gloomiest forecasts on Wall Street (a quick walk down Adam Parker's YTD memory lane should be sufficient) - is now recommending equities and urging the sale of Treasuries and other duration exposure, it also admits that the US is now well into the late stages of the cycle, financial conditions will tighten significantly, and that much more volatility is on the horizon: "by 2Q17, the market will confront a more hawkish Fed, a still-strengthening USD and a renewed moderation in China's growth. Political reality may also bite, as high expectations for action by the new US administration become hard to meet."

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