It is the 17th of September 2019

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Which States Have Suffered The Biggest Retail Losses

With the great retail bankruptcy tsunami claiming its latest victim on Thursday, when Gymboree announced it wouldn't make its June 1 interest payment guaranteeing a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing in the next month, the signs continue to mount that the next "big short" - either in the form of REITs, CMBS, CMBX, or single name stocks as discussed here - is shorting America's bloated retail sector in general, and that staple of US "bricks and mortar" retailers in particular, the mall.

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"Something Snapped": US Department Store Sales Crash Most On Record

As we first documented last week in "Mega-Bears Smell Blood As Mall REITs Tumble" and as Bloomberg followed up yesterday, looking at CMBS on the Mall REIT space, many have set their sights on mall REITs as the "next big short." However, an obvious question that has emerged is whether it is too late to go all in on this particular short, or whether as some have suggested, the bottom is in.  “The short feels crowded to us,” said Matthew Weinstein, principal at Axonic Capital, a hedge fund that specializes in structured products. “If these defaults start happening soon, the short will work, but if the defaults do not occur quickly, the first guy out could drive the market meaningfully higher.”

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Mega-Bears Smell Blood As REITs Tumble

While many have blamed today's spike in yields for the broader underperformance of the REIT sector, which sent the Bloomberg North American REIT index down 1.4%, its biggest one-day drop since December in a widespread selloff across all property sectors with 194 of the 214 stocks in the index lower today, it's more than just the jump in rates that is slamming the rate-sensitive sector.

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Despite Late Panic-Bid, Stocks Slump Most In 4 Months Amid Currency Chaos

January was a tough month for some...

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Make Stocks Volatile Again

The general sentiment on the Convergex trading desks continues to be bearish, so today Nichaolas Colas reviews seasonal patterns for the CBOE VIX Index going back to its starting point in 1990 to see what that math says about current market risk.

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