It is the 29th of March 2020


"The Potential Problems Are As Follows" - How The Bull Market Could End According To Credit Suisse

With Trump now officially US president amid concerns that a "sell the inauguration" sentiment may emerge at any moment, it was an appropriate moment for Credit Suisse analyst Andrew Garthwaite to release his report listing the 10 possible ways in which the bank's central views (and often the consensus) could be surprised. Below the bank highlights the factors its thinks could surprise adversely in 2017, together with its core views.

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Goldman's Fed Minutes Post-Mortem: "The Elephant Was In The Room After All"

Earlier we showed what some of the more prominent sellside strategists thought of the FOMC's surprisingly hawkish (yet maybe not) December minutes. And now, to top off the Fed Minutes day, here is perhaps the only analysis that matters: that of Goldman Sachs, which notes that as we speculated in December when the Fed hiked, "the hawkish December FOMC statement and accompanying increase in median interest rate expectations were to some extent motivated by the possibility of easier fiscal policy–as opposed to a shift in the FOMC reaction function."

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The Scariest Forecast For Treasury Bulls

With Trump's border tax adjustment looking increasingly likely, the stock market - as JPM has warned in recent days - is starting to fade the relentless Trumponomic, hope-driven rally since election day instead focusing on the details inside the president-elect's proposed plans. And, as explained earlier in the week, if the border tax proposal is implemented, economists at Deutsche Bank estimate the tax could send inflation far above the Federal Reserve's 2% target and drive a 15% surge in the dollar.

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