It is the 16th of February 2020


Treasury-Bund Spread Widest Since The Fall Of The Berlin Wall

Today's massacre in money markets has seen global bonds crushed but US Treasuries dramatically underperforming. In fact, as Gavekal Capital's Eric Bush notes, the last time the spread between US and German 10-year government bonds had such a large yield differential was on May 10th, 1989, as in before the fall of the Berlin Wall.

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If You Own Bond Substitutes (like Coke) You've Been Warned

I waas recently going through a new client’s portfolio and found it full of the likes of Coca-Cola, Kimberly-Clark and Campbell Soup — what I call (pseudo) bond substitutes. Each one is a stable and mature company. Your mother-in-law would be proud if you worked for any one of them. They have had a fabulous past; they’ve grown revenues and earnings for decades. They were in their glory days when most baby boomers were coming of age. But the days of growth are in the rearview mirror for these companies — their markets are mature, and the market share of competitors is high. They can innovate all day long, but consumers will not be drinking more fizzy liquids, wearing more diapers or eating more canned soup.

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