It is the 17th of September 2019

News

Before You Book That Vacation, JPM Warns Multiple Spoilers Are Converging In November

One week ago, Jan Loeys - the person who wrote "The JPMorgan View" for 15 years - announced his exit, as he transitioned from tactical asset allocation to longer-term strategy, and that he would be handing over the authorship to John Normand, and soon Nikos Panigirtzoglou and Marko Kolanovic, but not before summarizing what he has learned in 30 years of investing in a must-read bulletin which he published last week.

Read More

China's "Bubble Prophet" Sees Unprecedented Surge In Home Prices

Beijing's ability and eagerness, to create and roll from one bubble, whether it is in housing, equities, commodities, cars, bitcoin and so on, into the next has been extensively documented, however, of all recurring bubbles to impact the Chinese economy, housing is by far the most important. The reason for that is that housing provides Chinese society with a dramatic wealth effect, far greater than the stock market, and as Deutsche Bank calculated in March, in 2016 the rise of property prices boosted household wealth in 37 tier 1 and tier 2 cities by CNY 24 trillion, almost twice their total disposable income of RMB12.9 trillion (fig.11).

Read More

U.S. Weeks Away From A Recession According To Latest Loan Data

While many "conventional" indicators of US economic vibrancy and strength have lost their informational and predictive value over the past decade (GDP fluctuates erratically especially in Q1, employment is the lowest this century yet real wage growth is non-existent, inflation remains under the Fed's target despite its $4.5 trillion balance sheet and so on), one indicator has remained a stubbornly fail-safe marker of economic contraction: since the 1960, every time Commercial & Industrial loan balances have declined (or simply stopped growing), whether due to tighter loan supply or declining demand, a recession was already either in progress or would start soon.

Read More

Featured Apps