It is the 13th of November 2019

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JPMorgan's Outlook For 2018: "Eat, Drink And Be Merry, For In 2019..."

While the prevailing outlook by the big banks for 2018 and onward has been predominantly optimsitic and in a few euphoric cases, "rationally exuberant", with most banks forecasting year-end S&P price targets around 2800 or higher, and a P/E of roughly 20x as follows...

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Guess Who Isn't Buying The "Reflation" Trade

For all the talk of record (at least until recently) speculative Treasury shorts, rising inflation and a guaranteed selloff in long-dated debt - at least according to virtually every sellside desk on Wall Street - one group of investors is clearly on the other side of the trade: Wall Street itself. 

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US Household Debt Rose To $12.6 Trillion In 2016: Biggest Jump In A Decade

While it does not contain any new information to those who track the monthly, G.19, consumer credit releases by the Fed, the quarterly NY Fed report on Household Debt and Credit Developments provides a convenient one-stop summary of quarterly changes in household finances. What the latest report issued this morning revealed, is that total US household debt jumped in Q4 driven by increases in credit card debt, auto and student loans, and a Q4 surge in mortgage originations, and as of December 31, 2016, stood at $12.58 trillion, a $226 billion (1.8%) increase from the third quarter of 2016. For the full year 2016, total household debt rose by $460 billion, the biggest annual increase in a decade.

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