It is the 29th of February 2020

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Eric Peters: "The Next Market Cleanse Will Be Sharp, Deep, Fast And Feel Like The End Of The World"

The latest weekend note by Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management, is his latest masterpiece in lyrical, stream of consciousness, financial analysis, and can be broadly divided into to broad parts: his latest take on financial markets analyzing the build up of disequilibrium which eventually culminates with discrete "flushes" that reset the system; how bold investors inevitably give up on financial sense and logic long (or just) before said flush takes place, and what this upcoming Minsky Moment could mean for the future. We have excerpted from this section in the current note, as for the remainder of his weekend observations - which deal with tectonic macro and geopolitical shifts - we will follow up in a subsequent post.

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"We May Be Very Close To The Turning Point": Selloff Blamed On This Note From JPM's Marko Kolanovic

While nobody knows what catalyzed for the sharp selloff over the last hour, with Citi blaming it on Acrophobia, or fear of heights, saying  that "US equities opened at record highs, key levels were being approached in fixed income while USD enjoyed a bid across the board... However since then, it looks like markets have gotten a small case of cold feet", Bloomberg had a different idea, when it observed that stocks erased gains around 12:30 p.m. as S&P 500 fell 0.5% over 60 minutes to low of 2,469.51. It notes that the "weakness occurred as traders circulated a note by JPMorgan quant strategist Marko Kolanovic that cautioned investors on the risks of record-low volatility in the equity market."

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Your Future Wealth Depends on what You Decide to Keep and Invest in Now

  • Millienials look for instant gratification
  • Spend half of their income on leisure
  • Instant gratification doesn’t work if need to save for the future
  • Savings rates falling, few have retirement funds
  • Important to understand marginal difference between spending and pleasure
  • Future wealth depends on what you decide to keep and invest in now

This week the festival of all festivals begins, Glastonbury 2017. Ed Sheeran, Foo Fighters and Barry Gibb will each be singing to the 250,000 revellers who are currently on their way to Somerset. To those unfamiliar with Glastonbury it is a glorious few days in the countryside with camping and music. Every year there is far too much mud, lots of tears, alcohol, dodgy substances, hippies and great bands. Not to mention the fancy dress outfits and the toilets with questionable sanitary conditions. It is brilliant fun which everyone should try at least once.

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'Cash On The Sidelines' Crashes Near Record Lows

With hedge fund liquidity (and their ability to absorb any market shock) at record lows, it seems retail investors are also all-in on stocks. As Ned Davis Research points out, total cash holdings for funds at lowest in 19 years.

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