It is the 20th of November 2019


JPMorgan's Outlook For 2018: "Eat, Drink And Be Merry, For In 2019..."

While the prevailing outlook by the big banks for 2018 and onward has been predominantly optimsitic and in a few euphoric cases, "rationally exuberant", with most banks forecasting year-end S&P price targets around 2800 or higher, and a P/E of roughly 20x as follows...

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Goldman Slashes Q3 GDP By 30% Due To Hurricane Disaster

Yesterday, when commenting on the impact of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, we noted that even before the two devastating storms were set to punish Texas, Florida and the broader economy, erasing at least 0.4% GDP from Q3 GDP according to BofA and costing hundreds of billions in damages (contrary to the best broken window fallacy, the lost invested capital more than offsets the "flow" benefits from new spending, which is why the US does not bomb itself every time there is a recession to "stimulate growth"), things were turning south for the US economy, which in turn prompted Deutsche Bank to point out that (adjusted) recession risk, at roughly 20%, is now the highest in the past decade, and that it was quite prudent for the Fed, which expects to hike rates at least once more in 2017, to pause its current tightening, especially since a period of both economic and market weakness is imminent.

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Turnaround Tuesday (in the Stock Market)?

Turnaround Tuesday? Checking Those Bounce Lines

Courtesy of Phil of Phil’s Stock World

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The Number Of Young Adults Living With Their Parents Has Never Been Higher (But It Could Be Worse)

Back in 2012, the bullish thesis for US housing (the one everyone was hoping for, instead of the fake housing "recovery" driven by the parking of dirty foreign oligarch money in NYC triplexes aka the new Swiss bank account, the private equity distressed rental property bid, and bank subsidies courtesy of the delay in the foreclosure pipeline) was that all those millions of young Americans aged 18-34 would finally move out of their parents' houses and start households of their own.

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