It is the 20th of September 2019

News

Natixis Warns, US Economy Will "Slow Down Substantially" In 2018

As US GDP growth rises at 3% or more for the second quarter in a row, French investment bank Natixis urges investors to prepare for the U.S. economy to "slow down substantially" as early as 2018.

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Why Madrid Will Never Let Go - Catalonia Is Closer To The Eurozone Than Spain

As we have detailed previously, the Spanish region of Catalonia in the North-Eastern corner of Spain will attempt to hold an independence referendum tomorrow, against the will of the central government in Madrid.

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U.S. Weeks Away From A Recession According To Latest Loan Data

While many "conventional" indicators of US economic vibrancy and strength have lost their informational and predictive value over the past decade (GDP fluctuates erratically especially in Q1, employment is the lowest this century yet real wage growth is non-existent, inflation remains under the Fed's target despite its $4.5 trillion balance sheet and so on), one indicator has remained a stubbornly fail-safe marker of economic contraction: since the 1960, every time Commercial & Industrial loan balances have declined (or simply stopped growing), whether due to tighter loan supply or declining demand, a recession was already either in progress or would start soon.

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Fitch Downgrades Italy To BBB From BBB+

Having largely disappeared from the market's scope for the past 6 months, ever since Europe "bent" its rule allowing the bailout of Monte Paschi and several smaller banks despite Italy having the greatest amount of disclosed NPLs of any European nation, moments ago Fitch decided to drag Italy right back in the spotlight when it downgraded Italy to BBB from BBB+, citing "Italy's persistent track record of fiscal slippage, back-loading of consolidation, weak economic growth, and resulting failure to bring down the very high level of general government debt has left it more exposed to potential adverse shocks. This is compounded by an increase in political risk, and ongoing weakness in the banking sector which has required planned public intervention in three banks since December."

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Greece Is In Trouble Again: Bonds, Stocks Plunge As Bailout Talks Collapse; IMF Sees "Explosive" Debt

It may - or may not - shock readers to learn that Greece is once again on the verge of collapse.

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Moody's Cuts Italy Ratings Outlook To Negative

Moody's has cut Italy's long-term senior unsecuredd government debt rating outlook from 'stable' to 'negative', leaving it at Baa2 for now. Citing "slow and halting progress" on economic and fiscal reform in Italy, noting that reduction in Italy’s large debt burden will be further postponed given subdued medium-term growth prospects, recent fiscal slippage.

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