It is the 7th of December 2019

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Citi's "What If?" Scenarios: Part 2

Yesterday we published the first set of 7 "What If" scenarios that didn't make it into the Citi Credit team's (already rather gloomy) year-ahead forecast. Because while Citi's "base case" was clearly bearish (our summary can be found here), what was left unsaid was even more unsettling, if not troubling. As the bank's credit team wrote "what about the outcomes that didn’t quite make it into our base case? The scenarios that aren’t central, but which aren’t entirely implausible either – both bullish and bearish." Citi then listed the following 7 scenarios in the first part of its quasi-forecast:

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UK Deploys Army As Terror Threat Raised To Highest, May Warns "More Attacks Imminent"

In a televised statement from Downing Street, UK PM Theresa May said Britain has increased its security threat level to the highest possible "critical" from "severe", following Monday's suicide attack in Manchester that killed 22 people, including children, and she also said members of the army would be deployed to "assist police" and boost security at key sites, and that military personnel would be deployed at public events such as concerts and sports events.

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U.K. Parliament Gives Theresa May Approval To Start Brexit

Moments ago, UK Parliament passed legislation allowing the government to invoke Article 50, with the House of Commons overturning amendments from the unelected House of Lords that sought to restrict May’s room for maneuver.  While press reports earlier said May could trigger Article 50 as early as Thursday, subsequent reports from Bloomberg suggested that she will commence Brexit in the last week of March.

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