It is the 8th of December 2019


Julian Brigden On The "Armageddon" Scenario: "This Is What The Endgame For Markets Looks Like"

Eric Townsend and Patrick Ceresna, the people behind the weekly Macro Voices podcast, have released an extended, hour-long interview with Julian Brigden founder of Macro Intelligence 2 Partners, in which among the various topics discussed (see the attached slidepack for supporting materials and charts) were: 

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"What Has Kept The Rally Going": Some Thoughts From Deutsche Bank

The relentless, steady, monotonous levitation to all time highs keeps chugging along: while last week saw the S&P experience its first 1% intraday move in nearly two months, there has yet to be a comparable move on the downside. As Deutsche Bank notes, pull backs of 3-5% in the S&P 500 are typical every 2 to 3 months historically. The last such pull back occurred just prior to the US presidential election. The 4 month uninterrupted rally since is now well above average and if it continues for another 2 weeks will put it in the top 10% of rallies by duration. At 14%, the size of the rally is also somewhat larger than the historical average between such pullbacks (+10%).

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Can 'Soft' Become 'Hard'? - RBC Explains The Market's "Longer-Term Battle"

The last few days have seen the yawning chasm between 'soft' survey and confidence data (soaring) and 'hard' real macroeconomic data (tumbling) widen still further.

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World's Largest Actively Managed-Bond Fund Dumps "Excessively Risky" Eurozone Bank Debt

Back in September, Tad Rivelle, Chief Investment Officer for fixed income at LA-based TCW, said in a note that "the time has come to leave the dance floor", noting that "corporate leverage, which has exceeded levels reached before the 2008 financial crisis, is a sign that investors should start preparing for the end of the credit cycle." Ominously, he added that “we’ve lived this story before.” Five months later, the FT reports that TCW, which is also the US asset manager that runs the world’s largest actively managed bond fund, has put its money where its bearish mouth is, and has eliminated its exposure to eurozone bank debt over fears these lenders are "excessively risky."

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