It is the 20th of September 2019

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China's $9 Trillion Shadow Banking System Shrinks For The First Time In 9 Months

On the surface, the latest Chinese credit data reported overnight by the PBOC was not particularly memorable: new loans tumbled from the near record 1.540TN Yuan in June to only 825.5BN in July, just above the 820BN expected, while Total Social Financing also declined substantially from June's 1.78TN to 1.22TN, also beating the 1TN estimate. While both July prints were a steep drop from June - reflected in Monday's miss in retail sales, industrial production and capex - they were a significant increase from the year ago numbers. At the same M2 dropped to a new record low, sliding from June's 9.4% to 9.2% in July, missing expectations of a modest rebound to 9.5%.

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China's "Bubble Prophet" Sees Unprecedented Surge In Home Prices

Beijing's ability and eagerness, to create and roll from one bubble, whether it is in housing, equities, commodities, cars, bitcoin and so on, into the next has been extensively documented, however, of all recurring bubbles to impact the Chinese economy, housing is by far the most important. The reason for that is that housing provides Chinese society with a dramatic wealth effect, far greater than the stock market, and as Deutsche Bank calculated in March, in 2016 the rise of property prices boosted household wealth in 37 tier 1 and tier 2 cities by CNY 24 trillion, almost twice their total disposable income of RMB12.9 trillion (fig.11).

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RBC: "This Is The $1 Trillion Question On Our Clients' Minds"

With Dennis Gartman seemingly correct this time, and the market not only melting up, but in full "blow off top" mode, traders can only sit back and watch in quiet amazement how nothing can lead to even the most nominal of downticks. So in hopes of bringing some daily clarity, here is RBC's cross-asset head Charlie McElligott with his daily dose of market zen, focusing not only on the key events of the day, namely China's record credit injection and Yellen's more hawkish than expected Congressional testimony, but with an observation of what "continues to be the chief concern of clients on recent marketing swings", namely "The TRILLION dollar question: when does all of this “inflation as a good thing” tip over into “inflation with no growth”—aka STAGFLATION?"

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