It is the 19th of September 2019

News

Goldman Slashes Q3 GDP By 30% Due To Hurricane Disaster

Yesterday, when commenting on the impact of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, we noted that even before the two devastating storms were set to punish Texas, Florida and the broader economy, erasing at least 0.4% GDP from Q3 GDP according to BofA and costing hundreds of billions in damages (contrary to the best broken window fallacy, the lost invested capital more than offsets the "flow" benefits from new spending, which is why the US does not bomb itself every time there is a recession to "stimulate growth"), things were turning south for the US economy, which in turn prompted Deutsche Bank to point out that (adjusted) recession risk, at roughly 20%, is now the highest in the past decade, and that it was quite prudent for the Fed, which expects to hike rates at least once more in 2017, to pause its current tightening, especially since a period of both economic and market weakness is imminent.

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"What Cracks This Egg?" Morgan Stanley Asks, And Answers: "The Debt Ceiling Worries Us Most"

In the latest Sunday Start report from Morgan Stanley's Andrew Sheets, the bank's chief cross-asset strategist looks at the current state of the market - "the S&P 500, Russell 2000 and NASDAQ have hit all-time highs. Volatility has plunged back down near all-time lows. Credit is tighter and yields have been stable" - and asks the same question posed by virtually everyone else in recent weeks : "what rattles this market. What breaks the egg?"

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Inflation is no longer in stealth mode

  • IHS Markit index shows UK households pessimistic about finances for 2017-208
  • UK household finances remain under intense pressure from rising living costs
  • 58 percent of respondents expected higher interest rates in 12 months time
  • Inflation in the United Kingdom currently at near four-year high
  • Prices up prices by 2.9pc year-on-year, biggest annual increase since June 2013
  • In May consumer spending in the UK fell for the first time in almost four years

By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. John Maynard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace (1919)

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