It is the 19th of September 2019

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China Beige Book Warns Economic Slowdown Has Begun

When it comes to the global economy, few things matter as much as China, the trajectory of its economy and especially the pace and impulse of its credit creation, which is ironic because virtually all data coming out of China is fabricated and manipulated, and thoroughly untrustworthy, either on purpose or "by accident."

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Q3 Earnings Season Begins This Week: Here Are The 3 Things Goldman Clients Are Focusing On

It's that time in the quarter again: 3Q earnings season begins this week with Wall Street consensus expecting S&P 500 EPS growth of just 5% (3% ex-Energy), a sharp drop from the last two quarters (Q1 was+14% and Q2 +11%). According to Goldman's Davis Kostin, "solid economic activity coupled with a weak USD will support sales growth of 7%, consistent with the past two quarters." The Goldman strategist also expects margins to slip slightly to 9.7% but remain near record highs, and that "investors will ignore the EPS slowdown given one-time hurricane effects and the focus on benefits from corporate tax reform."

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US Workers' Wage Expectations Unexpectedly Collapse

Cue the latest economic (and Phillips curve) paradox.

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The Four Key Themes From Q4 Conference Calls

In its quarterly Beige Book publication, Goldman conveniently gathers anecdotal evidence of fundamental and thematic trends from the earnings transcripts of companies in the S&P 500. As Goldman's Davis Kostin explains, since President Trump’s surprise victory over Hillary Clinton in November, investors and management teams have been acutely focused on the new administration’s policy proposals. In this Beige Book, we focus on management commentary regarding four key pillars of the Trump Administration’s agenda: tax reform, regulation, fiscal spending, and trade policy.

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David Rosenberg: "The Travesty Is We Have 23.5 Million Americans Aged 25-To-54 Outside The Labor Force"

Some observations on recent negative trends in productivity, employment mismatch, and labor training and education from the increasingly more bearish David Rosenberg, who notes that the Trump's proposed policies may end up helping growth on the margins, but fail to focus on what is really important, making tens of millions of US workers competitive and qualified for today's jobs market.

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Manhattan Luxury-Home Prices Drop For 8th Straight Month Amid "Glut In Overpriced Apartments"

The poor are getting poorer but the rich, it appears, are no longer getting richer. With apartment vacancies at 9-month highs, Bloomberg reports that Manhattan's luxury-home market is rapidly losing its luster. Prices have been dropping every month since February, when they reached their highest point on record, and, as one analyst notes, "the downward trend in that decline hasn’t abated, and we haven’t seen it wavering in any way."

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