It is the 15th of September 2019

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Citi's "What If?" Scenarios: Part 2

Yesterday we published the first set of 7 "What If" scenarios that didn't make it into the Citi Credit team's (already rather gloomy) year-ahead forecast. Because while Citi's "base case" was clearly bearish (our summary can be found here), what was left unsaid was even more unsettling, if not troubling. As the bank's credit team wrote "what about the outcomes that didn’t quite make it into our base case? The scenarios that aren’t central, but which aren’t entirely implausible either – both bullish and bearish." Citi then listed the following 7 scenarios in the first part of its quasi-forecast:

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Citi's "What If?" Scenarios: Part 2

Yesterday we published the first set of 7 "What If" scenarios that didn't make it into the Citi Credit team's (already rather gloomy) year-ahead forecast. Because while Citi's "base case" was clearly bearish (our summary can be found here), what was left unsaid was even more unsettling, if not troubling. As the bank's credit team wrote "what about the outcomes that didn’t quite make it into our base case? The scenarios that aren’t central, but which aren’t entirely implausible either – both bullish and bearish." Citi then listed the following 7 scenarios in the first part of its quasi-forecast:

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Eric Peters: "The Next Market Cleanse Will Be Sharp, Deep, Fast And Feel Like The End Of The World"

The latest weekend note by Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management, is his latest masterpiece in lyrical, stream of consciousness, financial analysis, and can be broadly divided into to broad parts: his latest take on financial markets analyzing the build up of disequilibrium which eventually culminates with discrete "flushes" that reset the system; how bold investors inevitably give up on financial sense and logic long (or just) before said flush takes place, and what this upcoming Minsky Moment could mean for the future. We have excerpted from this section in the current note, as for the remainder of his weekend observations - which deal with tectonic macro and geopolitical shifts - we will follow up in a subsequent post.

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Eric Peters: "The Next Market Cleanse Will Be Sharp, Deep, Fast And Feel Like The End Of The World"

The latest weekend note by Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management, is his latest masterpiece in lyrical, stream of consciousness, financial analysis, and can be broadly divided into to broad parts: his latest take on financial markets analyzing the build up of disequilibrium which eventually culminates with discrete "flushes" that reset the system; how bold investors inevitably give up on financial sense and logic long (or just) before said flush takes place, and what this upcoming Minsky Moment could mean for the future. We have excerpted from this section in the current note, as for the remainder of his weekend observations - which deal with tectonic macro and geopolitical shifts - we will follow up in a subsequent post.

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