It is the 15th of September 2019

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Q3 Earnings Season Begins This Week: Here Are The 3 Things Goldman Clients Are Focusing On

It's that time in the quarter again: 3Q earnings season begins this week with Wall Street consensus expecting S&P 500 EPS growth of just 5% (3% ex-Energy), a sharp drop from the last two quarters (Q1 was+14% and Q2 +11%). According to Goldman's Davis Kostin, "solid economic activity coupled with a weak USD will support sales growth of 7%, consistent with the past two quarters." The Goldman strategist also expects margins to slip slightly to 9.7% but remain near record highs, and that "investors will ignore the EPS slowdown given one-time hurricane effects and the focus on benefits from corporate tax reform."

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Calmest Market In 75 Years Hits Record Highs - Ignores Dismal Data, Commodity Carnage

Massive liquidity issues in China wealth product liquidation, commodities crashing, oil plunging, US macro data disappointments, US earnings disappointments, and Buffett dumping Big Blue - only makes sense that The Dow just had its quietest 8 days since 1952!!!

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"Something Snapped": US Department Store Sales Crash Most On Record

As we first documented last week in "Mega-Bears Smell Blood As Mall REITs Tumble" and as Bloomberg followed up yesterday, looking at CMBS on the Mall REIT space, many have set their sights on mall REITs as the "next big short." However, an obvious question that has emerged is whether it is too late to go all in on this particular short, or whether as some have suggested, the bottom is in.  “The short feels crowded to us,” said Matthew Weinstein, principal at Axonic Capital, a hedge fund that specializes in structured products. “If these defaults start happening soon, the short will work, but if the defaults do not occur quickly, the first guy out could drive the market meaningfully higher.”

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The Four Key Themes From Q4 Conference Calls

In its quarterly Beige Book publication, Goldman conveniently gathers anecdotal evidence of fundamental and thematic trends from the earnings transcripts of companies in the S&P 500. As Goldman's Davis Kostin explains, since President Trump’s surprise victory over Hillary Clinton in November, investors and management teams have been acutely focused on the new administration’s policy proposals. In this Beige Book, we focus on management commentary regarding four key pillars of the Trump Administration’s agenda: tax reform, regulation, fiscal spending, and trade policy.

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