Located about 1040 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, Jose is headed at 16 mph on a steady west-northwest track, steered by the same ridge that is helping to direct Irma.
On its current track, Jose would reach the northern Leeward Islands by Saturday, but the ridge is predicted to weaken enough by Saturday to allow Jose to arc just northeast of the islands. Conditions are favorable for Jose to strengthen into a hurricane by later Wednesday, and it could approach Category 3 strength by late in the week. About 25% of the European model ensemble members bring Jose into the northern Leeward Islands, but all of the GFS ensemble members keep Jose north of the islands.
The news means that there are now two major hurricanse barreling toward Florida in the Atlantic, as shown in the map below.
Meanwhile, Katia, which was christened as a Tropical Storm by NHC at 5 am EDT Wednesday, was also just upgraded to a Hurricane.
Located in the Bay of Campeche about 175 miles north of Veracruz, Mexico, Katia is embedded in a very moist environment with numerous showers and thunderstorms along and south of a frontal zone (see Figure 9), and the storm’s core has become gradually more organized. Wind shear will be dropping from about 10-15 knots to around 5-10 knots by Friday, which also supports development.
Models and the Euro and GFS ensembles are unanimous in drifting Katia for a couple of days before driving it southwestward into the Mexican coast this weekend. Extremely heavy rains of 10 – 20” are possible along parts of the northeast Mexican coast, especially in northern Veracruz, as Katia approaches and moves inland.