From the Slope of Hope: So here we are. Three days from my typing of this post, we will be in the thick of election day, and by Tuesday evening, we should have a good idea as to what the next four years are going to be like.
I started off this year with a post about the election, and I've written about it from time to time since then. The entire post can be summarized with its closing line: "It’s as simple as that. Status Quo means Hillary. Financial Mayhem means Bernie. Fear means Trump."
Unfortunately, we didn't get financial mayhem, so Bernie's out of the picture. As some of you know, this saddened me greatly, because the country at last had a chance at a truly moral leader. His endorsement of Clinton now baffles me, considering the disgusting behavior that the DNC took toward destroying him, but I suppose his reasoning is the same as 90% of Clinton's supporters ("He's not Trump"), so.........shrug.
Ever since the October 28th announcement from the FBI, Team Trump has been excitedly pointing to its renewed chances of success, but the numbers sure aren't looking encouraging. Yes, Trump got "less behind" for a little while, but the spread is still as wide as Hillary's backside:
It seems every day that passes brings in increasingly brazen tales of thievery, corruption, and lies. It's gotten to the point now that even satanic rituals are part of Camp Clinton (hey, at least they're not atheists, right?)
In the midst of all this insanity, there are actually some very well-written pieces such as this one (and here's the second part) that articulate the source of all this angst and what its aftermath will be. As a student of history, I find times like these more fascinating than distressing, as we are watching massive changes unfold before our eyes.
I suspect, however, that "change" isn't what we're going to get. My hunch is that President Pantsuit will win (perhaps by a small margin popular-vote-wise, but win nonetheless) and she'll be stuck with a Republican Senate and House that detests her with every molecule of their being. Nothing will get done. Kind of like the past eight years. And for all the talk of "pitchforks and torches", America is far too passive. You're not going to see any pitchforks. Or torches. Or anything beyond some bloggers continue to howl. Clinton's life will be hell, I'm sure, but it won't be because anyone is dangling from a lamp post.
I'll repeat what I wrote back on May 28th:
......consider this final thought: picture in your head – – Hillary and Bill Clinton marching up Pennsylvania Avenue in January as she prepares to take the reigns of the most powerful position on Earth. Honestly, take a moment, and picture that in your mind’s eye. Picture Bill with his giant smirk, waving to the crowds. Picture Hillary and her gargantuan ass swaying back and forth (come to think of it, only Carter did the walk; they’ll be toted around in a bulletproof limo).
At that point, you’ll know the bad guys have wholly and fully won. Goldman Sachs. Lloyd. Bill. All of them. We’ve spent the past seven years thinking that the financial crisis was just Act One to a much bigger drama. Well, it wasn’t. Instead, the financial crisis was the last chance for America to save itself from itself. Instead, the 1% have utterly triumphed, a completely venal, corrupt woman is going to be escorted into the White House (mainly because women like the fact she is, clinically speaking, a female), and not a single bad boy on Wall Street will have paid any price for their sins.
It wasn't that long ago that the person defeated in the Presidential race made a concession speech which, while obviously expressing disappointment, at least did its best to re-unite the nation, since every campaign has some divisive themes. That's the nature of an adversarial political system. It seems like science fiction now, but here's the concession speech from Al Gore, whom many would very rightfully argue had the presidency stolen from him (although, given what was to take place just nine months after this video, he might have too much regret, particularly since he went on to make hundreds of millions of dollars from Google stock):
Can you imagine, for instance, Trump losing and making a speech like the one above? And that's the huge question: if he loses, will "Eleven Nine" (that is, the day after the election) be our own internal bookend to the external bookend of Nine/Eleven? How much civil unrest are we going to see? I suspect almost none. Lots of investigations, yes, but it'll be back to WalMart and the Kardashians for most of America before the week is even over.
Almost as important is who takes control of the Senate. Just as the Presidential race has taken the form of a sine wave........
So, too, has the race for control of the Senate, which is much closer:
If Clinton becomes President Pantsuit, she will naturally have endless investigations and probably an impeachment to anticipate, particularly if both houses of Congress are hostile to her. She automatically starts off with half the country hating her, plus a portion of the other half will have a feeling that - - for lack of a better term - - "she got away with it" - - and they'll hate her too. She is the perfect formula for an unpopular president.
As far as the stock market is concerned, which ostensibly is what we should be talking about anyway, the following pathway still makes the most sense to me:
This would suggest to me that, as risky as a "Clinton Relief Rally" might sound to equity bears, it might be worth holding on to at least some of those short positions and temporarily keeping wide stops. There is absolutely no way in the world that Clinton wins and the other side simply declares "we'll get 'em next time." I expect the biggest surprise from this election isn't happening on November 8th, but in the days and weeks that follow.