It is the 24th of January 2020

Bill Blain: "France Won't Shock Us: Macron Will Win On Sunday, And Le Pen Will Win In 2022"

MINT Partners' Head of Capital Markets Bill Blain is looking forward to a productive weekend with no shocks.

Sure, the latest US data says a further hike is coming – and payrolls today confirmed it.

To pour some sand in the engine, I’ve been “reliably informed” by an axed Hedgie their research suggests France could still cause wobbles, and folks are underestimating Le Pen’s real support...



France is not going to shock us. She is going to lose. (Notice the subtle use of “she” to encapsulate both la belle France and Marine..)


Here is the nailed on 100% certainty: Macron will win on Sunday, France will spend the next 5 years rudderless, and Le Pen is going to win in 2022.

I intend to spend the weekend doing race preparation on my boat – (which will largely consist of me shouting at computers for not talking to each other, while the rest of the crew does all the hard work). Our Fastnet race campaign starts next week with a 120 mile race round the English Channel – so do bear in mind the Cancer and Heart charities we are supporting this year.

However, while I’m not getting frustrated by the yacht, I will be finding time to read former Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis’ memoir of the last Greek Crisis: Adults in the Room.

The reviews have been superb. It plays to the Zeitgeist of the EU as the dark anti-democratic forces we all knew in our hearts they always were. It’s an examination of political reality – one quote is Varoufakis meeting Larry Summers who tells him:

“Outsiders prioritise their freedom to speak their version of the truth. The price is that they are ignored by the insiders, who make the important decisions.”

Wise words indeed.

Varoufakis also has some advice for Theresa May when it comes to dealing with the Evil Empire. This should be required reading in Westminster.

Meanwhile, UK Local Elections aren’t realistic barometers for national polls, but yesterday’s local vote is certainly worth paying some attention to. The turnout will have been low – but the trends are likely to confirm Theresa May is likely to achieve the decimation of Labour in 5 weeks time. Nothing surprising there – and I shall resist the temptation of a few Diane Abbot jokes..

I’m really interested to see what the Scottish Results tell us. I’m expecting further pressure on Sturgeon and Salmond as it becomes apparent how thin support for their “at-any-cost” referendum is.

To say there is something fishy about Scottish politics is a running joke – but the latest SNP wheeze has been senior party members campaigning against the EU Common Fisheries policy in key fishing ports…. Yet, the EU just gave Scotland £1mm for Marine Scotland – let us not for one moment suggest Brussels was throwing the Scots an Election bung to influence votes… But, let us not forget the SNP is the same party that’s been campaigning for an independent Scotland as part of the EU, but now says it won’t be part of its core food & agricultural policy.

Yeah.. but you won’t hear Herr Junkjerk throwing a wobbly or go crying to Mummy Merkel about Nicola Krankie not playing by the rules...

While its impossible for me to say I admire a conservative… the Scottish Tory leader, Ruth Davidson, does come across passably well.. She’s pointed out the SNP has announced millions in spending in marginal constituencies in recent days – including nearly £1 mm to less than 30 crofters in a seat the Liberals might just take..
Heavens, Jings, Crivens and Help’maboab.. you don’t think the SNP’s money barrel smells fishy?

Now, there is, of course, market opportunity in the imminent unveiling of the SNP as an empty threat. At the moment there are ways to take Scottish Government Risk – which, while we remain part of the UK, is effectively direct UK Treasury “Gilt” risk. That risk is way wide of the real risk Scotland will exit.

Have a great weekend… and let’s see if the rules change over the weekend!

“There is a fine line between fishing and standing on the shore like an idiot..”

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